RaboResearch: Poultry sector outlook 2026: favourable, but uncertainty is rising

RaboResearch expects the global and European poultry meat market to remain broadly favourable in the second half of 2026, driven by strong demand for chicken. At the same time, several developments are increasing uncertainty, particularly in Europe. These include rapid growth in European supply, questions around Brazilian exports to the EU and ongoing volatility in feed and input markets.

Strong European demand supports the market

Across many Western European countries, supermarket demand for chicken continues to grow by around 3–5% per year. This robust demand helps to keep the market in balance, especially as high beef prices and a limited, declining beef supply further push consumers towards chicken.

In the Netherlands, the trend is present but less pronounced than in other West European markets. Dutch retail chicken purchase volumes increased by around 0.4% in the first five months of 2026, below the European average. This more modest growth is mainly due to relatively high chicken prices in Dutch supermarkets, which are steering consumers towards smaller package sizes while total spending on chicken continues to rise.

At the same time, Dutch consumers are buying more fresh fish and, notably, more eggs, while purchases of red meat and meat alternatives have decreased. Processed chicken products, snacks and ready‑meals remain popular and show strong growth, as does frozen fish. This pattern is expected to continue, particularly since beef remains expensive and lower pig prices have not yet led to a clear recovery in pork demand at retail level.

Rapid growth in European supply

Production of poultry in Europe rose sharply in the first months of 2026. Chick placement is up by more than 6%, partly as a replacement of flocks affected by avian influenza outbreaks and partly as an expansion after a tight production year in 2025. Slaughter volumes of broilers increased by nearly 5% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year, with more than 90% of this growth coming from Poland, Romania, Hungary, Italy and Spain.

In the Netherlands, broiler slaughter numbers fell by around 0.7% in the first four months, mainly due to a 7% decline in January when avian influenza had a significant impact. Meanwhile, strong production expansion is ongoing in Romania and Hungary, and Poland continues to grow, with Spain and France also increasing their output.

For the remainder of 2026, it is crucial that production growth in Europe slows sufficiently to stay aligned with demand. If expansion continues too rapidly, the market risks oversupply and pressure on prices, particularly in countries with strong capacity growth.

Uncertainty around Brazilian exports to the EU

A major source of uncertainty is the future of Brazilian poultry exports to Europe. As of 1 May, the Mercosur‑EU agreement has come into force, which has led to a strong increase in exports from Brazil to the EU. However, this situation may change from 3 September 2026 onwards.

The EU has removed Brazil from its list of approved exporting countries because, in the view of the European Commission, Brazil does not yet sufficiently comply with the One Health strategy requirements regarding monitored and responsibly recorded antibiotic use. If imports of Brazilian chicken – as well as beef and eggs – were to stop, this would likely lead to a significant increase in breast meat prices in Europe and, indirectly, higher poultry prices overall.

Brazil is currently working on solutions to meet EU requirements. A monitoring and registration system for products intended for the EU market was introduced on 1 July. If this satisfies the European Commission, exports could resume later in the year, potentially without interruption. If not, European buyers will need to rely more heavily on intra‑EU and other third‑country suppliers, which reinforces the importance of keeping European production growth balanced with demand.

Trade flows: stable exports, rising imports

Dutch exports of unprocessed chicken have been relatively stable for some time, at around 300,000 to 325,000 tons per quarter. Germany remains by far the most important destination. In the first quarter of 2026, exports to Germany increased, partly because avian influenza temporarily reduced local supply there. Exports to other destinations, such as the United Kingdom, remained stable or declined slightly, while flows to France and Belgium stayed broadly steady.

Exports of processed chicken from the Netherlands grew strongly in early 2026, by more than 10% to around 43,000 tons. This was mainly driven by robust demand from the UK and Denmark, where imports of processed chicken increased by more than 30%.

On the import side, the Netherlands recorded a record volume of chicken imports in the first quarter – about 154,000 tons. This comprised roughly 50,000 tons of unprocessed chicken (mostly from other European countries), 50,000 tons of salted chicken breast from outside Europe, and 54,000 tons of processed chicken, again largely from non‑EU origins. Imports of unprocessed chicken from Poland rose markedly, while imports from most other suppliers declined. Growth in salted breast imports was mainly driven by Brazil, whereas imports from Thailand fell. For processed chicken, imports from Thailand and China increased substantially.

Feed prices: relatively low but sensitive to geopolitics

Feed prices have risen slightly in recent months but remain relatively low compared to the period after 2021. Concerns that the temporary blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil and fertiliser prices would push agricultural commodity prices sharply higher have only partially materialised.

Record crop expectations for maize in North America and soy in South America, combined with decent outlooks for wheat and maize in Europe, are leading to relatively comfortable stocks and only limited upward pressure on feed costs. Many arable farmers had already locked in fertiliser prices and planted their maize and soy when geopolitical tensions around Iran escalated, which reduced the impact of higher fertiliser prices.

Futures prices for maize and wheat have fallen by around 10–15%, and soy by roughly 5%. How sustainable these lower prices are remains uncertain and depends heavily on the durability of the peace initiatives and whether the Strait of Hormuz stays open for shipping. There are still concerns about a possible El Niño year, but these are currently overshadowed by optimism about trade routes reopening.

Dutch nitrogen policy: permits slowly coming closer

New Dutch nitrogen plans focus on two goals that have become increasingly urgent in recent years: restoring nature and restarting the issuance of building and environmental permits. Although much remains unclear, the scale of the challenge is evident.

For poultry farmers, no precise emission targets per farm have yet been set, but policies will likely emphasise measures in housing systems and pay particular attention to farms located near sensitive nature areas. Many businesses will need to carefully evaluate how their operations can remain future‑proof, not only regarding nitrogen but also climate, water management and animal welfare. This will require time, investment and, in some cases, major strategic decisions.

Programmes for farm buyouts are already in place, aimed at reducing livestock numbers and freeing up nitrogen space for new nature projects. For some older farmers, these schemes create an opportunity to exit the sector earlier, which in turn helps the government reach environmental targets more quickly.

What this means for DPC members

For Dutch Poultry Centre members and partners along the poultry value chain, the 2026 outlook brings both opportunity and risk:

• Demand for chicken and eggs remains structurally strong across Europe, supporting investment in innovative production, processing and added‑value products.

• At the same time, rapid expansion in some EU countries and possible disruptions to Brazilian imports can change price dynamics quickly, making capacity planning and risk management more important than ever.

• Relatively low feed prices and improving energy and fertiliser markets provide some cost relief, but they remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments.

• Dutch nitrogen policies and environmental requirements continue to shape long‑term investment decisions, especially for farms close to vulnerable nature areas.

In this environment, collaboration, knowledge‑sharing and innovation across breeding, production, processing and logistics are essential to keep the European poultry sector competitive, sustainable and resilient.

(Source: RaboResearch)